The PPV Numbers Thread, Doing that NFC85724702 dude's job Options

[DeadAndRestless]

Cutting it short, UFC 78 might have been top 15 but no one knows yet, this includes December 2006, blah blah blah.

Estimate North American PPV Numbers

- 2,400,000 – Oscar De Lay Hoya Vs Floyd Mayweather

- 1,050,000 – Chuck Liddell Vs Tito Ortiz (Took place in December of last year)

- 850,000 – Floyd Mayweather Vs Ricky Hatton (actually took place in December of this year which we wouldn’t normally count)

- 760,000 WWE Wrestlemania: Vince McMahon Vs Donald Trump

- 675,000 Chuck Liddell Vs Quinton Jackson

- 540,000 Tim Sylvia Vs Randy Couture

- 520,0010 Randy Couture Vs Gabriel Gonzaga

- 475,000 Chuck Liddell Vs Keith Jardine

- 425,000 Tito Ortiz Vs Rashad Evans

- 400,000 Anderson Silva Vs Travis Lutter

- 400,000 George St Pierre Vs Matt Serra

- 350,000 Manny Pacquioa Vs Marco Antonio Barrera

- 344,000 WWE Summerslam: John Cena Vs Randy Orton

- 340,000 Miguel Cotto Vs Shane Mosley

- 325,000 Anderson Silva Vs Rich Franklin

- 314,000 WWE Royal Rumble: John Cena Vs Umaga

- 305,000 Bernard Hopkins Vs Winky Wright

- 300,000 Fernando Vargas Vs Ricardo Mayorga

- 225,000 Marco Antonio Barrera Vs Juan Manuel Marquez

- 225,000 Miguel Cotto Vs Zab Judah

- 200,000 Manny Pacquioa Vs Jorge Solis

- 200,000 Rich Franklin Vs Yushin Okami

- 163,000 WWE No Mercy: (No announced main event other than guaranteed WWE title charge)

- 151,000 WWE Vengeance: John Cena Vs Mick Foley Vs Randy Orton Vs King Booker Vs Bobby Lashley

- 150,000 WWE Judgement Day John Cena Vs Great Kahli

- 147,000 WWE Great American Bash: John Cena Vs Bobby Lashley

- 146,000 WWE Armageddon Batista & Cena Vs Finlay & Booker

- 141,000 WWE New Years Revolution: John Cena Vs Umaga

- 140,000 WWE No Way Out: Cena & Michaels Vs Undertaker & Batista

- 134,000 WWE Unforgiven: John Cena Vs Randy Orton

- 120,000 WWE Backlash: Cena Vs Michaels Vs Orton Vs Edge

- 118,000 WWE Cyber Sunday: Undertaker Vs Batista

- 115,000 WWE One Night Stand: John Cena Vs Great Kahli

- 100,000 Erik Morales Vs David Diaz

- 75,000 Evander Holyfield Vs Sultan Ibragimov

- 70,000 Julio Caesar Chaves Jr. Vs Ray Sanchez

- 55,000 WWE December to Dismember: Elimination Chamber

- 40,000 Pride Second Coming: Dan Henderson Vs Wanderlei Silva

- 36,000 TNA Destination X: Samoa Joe Vs Christian Cage

- 36,000 TNA Bound For Glory: Sting Vs Kurt Angle

- 35,000 TNA Turning Point: Samao Joe Vs Kurt Angle

- 35,000 TNA Lockdown: Team Angle Vs Team Cage

- 35,000 K-1 Dynamite: Brock Lesnar Vs Kim Min-Soo

- 34,000 TNA Final Resolution: Samoa Joe Vs Kurt Angle

- 27,000 TNA Genesis: Kurt Angle & Kevin Nash Vs Booker T & Sting

- 26,000 TNA Hard Justice: Samoa Joe Vs Kurt Angle

- 25,000 Roy Jones Jr. Vs Anthony Hanshaw

- 23,000 TNA Against All Odds: Kurt Angle Vs Christian Cage

- 22,000 TNA Slammiversary: Kurt Angle Vs Samoa Joe Vs AJ Styles Vs Christian Cage Vs Chris Harris

- 21,000 TNA Sacrifice: Kurt Angle Vs Sting Vs Christian Cage

- 17,000 TNA No Surrender: Kurt Angle Vs Abyss

- 15,000 TNA Victory Road: Kurt Angle & Samoa Joe Vs Team 3-D

- 13,000 Bodog Fight: Fedor Emelianenko Vs Matt Lindland

Interesting notes to take from all this:

-PRIDE was apparently a lot more popular than some gave them credit for, and certainly moreso than TNA here in the US. In fact, compared to the anemic pre-Zuffa buyrates, they were probably pretty close to one another back in the earlier parts of this decade when Tito wasn't fighting. K-1 Heroes running on same day tape delay could probably do similar numbers (at least exceeding TNA) and make a few extra bucks, but we'll never see it happen. Hell, they don't even need to get people to fly over to Japan. You can have guys sitting in a studio in the US watching the satellite feed like SPEED does for most of their F-1 events (live) and Fox Soccer Channel often does for their (live) Serie A/Primera Liga games.

-Holyfield/Ibragimov did better than I expected, and given the international rights and Russian TV, probably made money, which is scary to me.

UFC Buyrates, by date:

-DECEMBER 06: 1,050,000
-FEBRUARY 07: 400,000
-MARCH: 540,000
-APRIL: 400,000
-MAY: 675,000
-JUNE: 200,000
-JULY: 425,000
-AUGUST: 520,000
-SEPTEMBER: 475,000
-OCTOBER: 325,000

Well, so much for Liddell/Rampage being a record breaker on PPV, or anywhere for that matter. UFC 72 was about as shitty as I expected, and if UFC 78 is expected to just squeeze into the top 15, that brings it the 350,000 or so I would have anticipated. There's definitely not the booming trend, and I know I've been saying for a few months now that the explosion of interest around the May PPV has completely died and left MMA, though still very healthy, with an increasingly stagnant base of interest in the US. I think we've seen the peak, boys and girls. Growth without changes in delivery of TV to new people isn't coming, and in typical Dana White fashion, that network TV talk has apparently died on the vine after a whole lot of big talk.

-Mediocre fights in boxing that should have been on HBO did poorly. Good fights did pretty well. Really good fights did enormous sums of money. I'm hardly shocked by that development. The more poor the show, the worse the buyrate. Eventually you get to Roy Jones/Handshaw, which was a pretty embarassing PPV, and it did the same number as the recent Teiken showcase show and most of your Warrior's Boxing PPVs did in only selling to the internet hardcore fanbase.

-Wrestling is stupid and did a lot of shitty business.

-I wouldn't in the least bit be surprised if a Showtime hyped Frank/Ken fight does 100,000+ later this year. That would be all sorts of fun.


edit: Another note of interest. Didn't really think of it at the time, but the number given for Couture/Gonzaga during the whole UFC vs. Couture thing a couple months ago was revealed then to be at 492,000. Not that its a ton lower, but still odd that its rated a TNA PPV higher here.

[epwar]

Thanks for all of that info. Interesting that Rich Franklin isn't nearly the draw that UFC believes/hopes he is. Both shows he headlined did under 400,000 views. That really shocked me as I thought a lot more people would want to see Franklin-Silva II.

[clintboxe]

Apparently UFC 78 did way better than expected. Lorenzo Fertita mentioned it in an interview with Kevin Iole recently. Meltzer also commented on it on the F4W show the other day,

[FrankM]

Surprised that Holyfield vs Sultan did 100,000, shocked that Pacquaio did 200,000 on a PPV without HBO, with small adverts and vs a guy even most boxing fans never heard of. I'm convinced they could do 500,000 buys if HBO did a two part 24/7 type show for his fight with Marquez. No need for an overblown 4 part deal like with the Mayweather fights, just something more than a pre-fight package the week before.

[CharlieMurphy(dv...]

UFC should be happy that their base that buys almost every PPV is still growing. You can't say that they've reach their peak with Ortiz/Liddell because with the constant turnover in talent, you never know when someone is going to catch on. If Brock Lesnar pans out, he's certainly marketable. The problem is that he's a heavyweight and they've got no heavyweight draws.

[jpcoleman7]

I think the 2 most telling numbers of the next year are going to be Griffin v Rampage and Serra v St. Pierre (and to a lesser extent Serra v Hughes if it happens)

Whatever number Griffin/Rampage draws will clearly state if they made a new star in Rampage and if people see Griffin as completely legit. Under 400,000 buys would be a disaster obviously. Anything over 500,000 and I think they'll know they have something.

With Serra and buyrates, they've spent so much time on TV with him and if he can't pop a buyrate for a Hughes match or a rematch with the most dominant WW in the world, someone who he beat recently then I think that they'll have to reevaluate the importance they put behind The Ultimate Fighter (i.e. waiting 8 months for someone to defend a title so they can coach the show.)

[epwar]

I just noticed that the Strikeforce: Shamrock vs. Baroni wasn't listed on there. Anyone know what that did?

[JTU]

Wasn't that a Showtime card?

[Elsalvajeloco]

Wasn't that a Showtime card?

It was on *SHOWTIME* PPV. A lot of the undercard bouts were free on ProElite.com.

[DeadAndRestless]

I totally haven't had a chance to reply to this at all for whatever reason. But here goes...

UFC should be happy that their base that buys almost every PPV is still growing.

Has it though? I don't think they're getting more buys now off the name than in January just off the Lutter/Silva vs. Silva/Franklin comparison alone. Business has slowed on TV and I think that's carried over to their PPVs. Simply put, they're still building "new stars" with lesser talent that needs way more time to incubate into being capable opposition at the top level, and so the ability to create another Forrest Griffin is nonexistent right now. Look at Mac Danzig: He was the winner of the lowest rated TUF ever, and while he's certainly good, he's never been as good as other fighters already at 155 for the UFC and will likely occupy a spot in the top 25 if lucky, but never titles.

You can't say that they've reach their peak with Ortiz/Liddell because with the constant turnover in talent, you never know when someone is going to catch on. If Brock Lesnar pans out, he's certainly marketable. The problem is that he's a heavyweight and they've got no heavyweight draws.

The draw they did have bounced because of money issues. Pretty funny given how I said the money situation would increasingly become a problem for them and I took a ton of flak from idiots around here who apparently see the UFC as being the unshakeable rock of the MMA world. Without Couture, they don't have anyone who will draw 500,000 buys on their own other than perhaps Liddell. Only Forrest/Rampage is on tap for '08 as a big money fight and unless something amazing happens real soon, I don't see that changing. I mean, does anyone see Frankie Edgar or Sean Sherk/BJ Penn really drawing major mainstream attention if Couture/Gonzaga didn't?

[epwar]

Wasn't that a Showtime card?

It was a PPV the Saturday it aired. Showtime then aired it a week later on cable.

[jpcoleman7]

After reading D&R's post the first thought that popped into my head is: Other than Rampage/Griffin what is the biggest fight on the horizon?

I immediately said Silva/Henderson. The buyrate for that is going to be very interesting. Is this the type of fight that casual fans will go out of their way to see? Dana White, as well as many others, has Silva pegged as the best fighter in the world right now (an assertion I agree with). And he's fighting perhaps the last person who anyone sees as a threat to the title.

I just wonder if this is only a "Superfight" to the more hardcore base.

[CharlieMurphy(dv...]

GSP/Serra should do better than Silva/Henderson. GSP gets some of the biggest reactions and Serra was on TV forever plus its got a good story so I think it'll do above 500,000. I think its inevitable that UFC will have a couple slow years but if this is their new base, they should be doing cartwheels. Its now partially up to them and mostly up to the fighters themselves putting together win streaks to make a few new stars.

I'll be interested to see what kind of bump Henderson gets from his fight with Rampage. That did great TV numbers and he hung with the Light Heavyweight Champion for five rounds. I think it'll be pretty easy to sell the masses on him being a legitimate threat to Anderson Silva.

[BELANGIA]

I don't think they'll ever have the fighters on TUF that they had early on. That's because of the other promotions out there. They really can't go out and get guys that are going to be contenders in a division and convince them to come on the TUF reality show with a chance at a "six figure contract", because guys with that talent can now make that money elsewhere, and really do it with less restrictions than they'd have with a UFC contract because with the other orgs out there, they'll most likely still be able to fight outside their organization if they want. So the UFC has to do a lot more work and do better than they have lately to spot guys with talent that could contend a couple years down the road who haven't already fully established themselves in the MMA world.

As far as the PPV numbers, you obviously have certain names that draw more, but I think it still holds true that people are going to pay to see a solid card. You don't have to have Liddell or Couture headlining a PPV to sell it. The fact that Silva/Lutter and GSP/Serra both had over 400,000 buys is a testament to that. Silva/Franklin had over 300,000 and that was a shitty card headlined by a fight that people had already seen before and that no one really had much doubt as to the outcome. If UFC 78 did over 350,000 that would be amazing. And with the fights they had on 79, I expect that show to have really strong numbers.

[DeadAndRestless]

I don't think they'll ever have the fighters on TUF that they had early on. That's because of the other promotions out there. They really can't go out and get guys that are going to be contenders in a division and convince them to come on the TUF reality show with a chance at a "six figure contract", because guys with that talent can now make that money elsewhere, and really do it with less restrictions than they'd have with a UFC contract because with the other orgs out there, they'll most likely still be able to fight outside their organization if they want. So the UFC has to do a lot more work and do better than they have lately to spot guys with talent that could contend a couple years down the road who haven't already fully established themselves in the MMA world.

This is something I've spoken of in the past. Guys that would have been in TUF 2-3 years ago off their reputations (Paul Daley being an example) are instead fighting for smaller organizations that are stilll paying decently. Certainly close to $30K guaranteed. They've been forced to go to guys who aren't as established for the most part to see if they can develop them. Mac Danzig is a bit of a departure from this, but that's been the status quo for TUF from the third season on.

As far as the PPV numbers, you obviously have certain names that draw more, but I think it still holds true that people are going to pay to see a solid card.

They're never going to see the number of people buying a show like UFC 78 match a Chuck Liddell main event. The problem they have is that they don't have guys who just KO everyone, which is obviously the preference of the fanbase.

The fact that Silva/Lutter and GSP/Serra both had over 400,000 buys is a testament to that.

Silva/Lutter and GSP/Serra were right at 400,000, not significantly over it. I still wish that there were real, hard, verifiable numbers other than what Meltzer had. Meltzer even admitted that what he got was based on context clues and various information that wasn't really reliable. Silva/Lutter was supposedly between 300,000-400,000 a couple months ago with no actual final number, and I'm still somewhat surprised to see that it hit the larger number rather than falling somewhere in the middle.

Silva/Franklin had over 300,000 and that was a shitty card headlined by a fight that people had already seen before and that no one really had much doubt as to the outcome. If UFC 78 did over 350,000 that would be amazing. And with the fights they had on 79, I expect that show to have really strong numbers.

I think 79 is going to be in trouble, just because of the Patriots/Giants game. No way that didn't eat into the buys.

[THB460]

They're never going to see the number of people buying a show like UFC 78 match a Chuck Liddell main event. The problem they have is that they don't have guys who just KO everyone, which is obviously the preference of the fanbase.

Could Anderson Silva fill this niche, or is he DQed by nationality?

[antelope]

After reading D&R's post the first thought that popped into my head is: Other than Rampage/Griffin what is the biggest fight on the horizon?

Just in the UFC or in the sport as a whole? The answer to the latter is clearly Fedor v. Randy. As for the former I think you have 2 pretty big fights after Rampage/Griffin. CharlieMurphy mentioned GSP/Serra, which I do expect to do quite well. It's good that Serra's not out for too long, as he'll still be pretty fresh in people's minds by the time this rolls around. You've also got Liddell vs. Griffin, which I absolutely think is a big fight whenever it happens. Especially on the off chance that Forrest actually beats Rampage. Not going to happen, but even without the title, I think Liddell/Griffin will do just fine.

After that things get a bit hazy. Depending on how Brock/Mir and Nog/Sylvia go there might be something to come out of there. I'm skeptical though, because even if Brock dominates, I don't see the audience getting excited enough about Nog or Sylvia for one of those fights to be a huge deal. Past that, the only other name I can see really drawing in any meaningful way is Frank Shamrock. I certaionly don't see Frank in the UFC, but if he did it could certainly be a big deal. Won't happen though.

Silca/Henderson I fear will do worse numbers then Brock/Mir.

[jpcoleman7]

If UFC would've been smart and kept putting Alexander against a bunch of strikers he would be a massive star.

Also, I am a little bit surprised that Anderson Silva isn't one of the biggest stars in MMA right now. He's still sort of under the radar in terms of exposure. Maybe it's the language barrier? I don't know.

[Hilliam Bolden]

If UFC would've been smart and kept putting Alexander against a bunch of strikers he would be a massive star.

Who are these "bunch of strikers" exactly?

[antelope]

If UFC would've been smart and kept putting Alexander against a bunch of strikers he would be a massive star.

A striker like, say, Thiago Silva? I don't know how you would classify Silva as anything other then a striker. He's 12-0 and 10 of those 12 wins are stoppages from strikes. Putting Alexander against strikers wouldn't have been effective - they would have had to put him against nothing but cans. I'm not going to get all "Houston sucks", but he surprised Jardine, beat a glorified can, and as soon as he faced a decent opponent who was ready for him, he got tooled. He's just fine in a Cage Rage sort of environment, but the UFC LHW division is crazy stacked, and there's no need to protect a one dimensional limited fighter who can't beat top level competition when you've got Chuck, Rampage, Girffin, Silva, Shogun, Rashad, Ortiz, Jardine, Lyoto, Sokoudjou, Henderson. Alexander's perfect spot is WEC LHW champ - he'll do just fine there, and I'll be stunned if he has more then 1 more UFC fight before being bumped down.